Dynamic Properties for a Second-Order Stochastic SEIR Model with Infectivity in Incubation Period and Homestead-Isolation of the Susceptible Population

In this article, we analyze a second-order stochastic SEIR epidemic model with latent infectious and susceptible populations isolated at home. Firstly, by putting forward a novel inequality, we provide a criterion for the presence of an ergodic stationary distribution of the model. Secondly, we establish sufficient conditions for extinction. Thirdly, by solving the corresponding Fokker–Plank equation, we derive the probability density function around the quasi-endemic equilibrium of the stochastic model. Finally, by using the epidemic data of the corresponding deterministic model, two numerical tests are presented to illustrate the validity of the theoretical results. Our conclusions demonstrate that nations should persevere in their quarantine policies to curb viral transmission when the COVID-19 pandemic proceeds to spread internationally. © 2023 by the authors.

Stochastic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic Via a New Mathematical Model

This work considers a new stochastic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the coronavirusCOVID-19 by providing the healthy compartment together with the quarantine/isolation compartment. In the deterministic model, global stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium E0 and the endemic equilibrium E*are derived in terms of the threshold quantity Rd0. Based on the chaotic behavior, we develop and analyze a fourdimensional stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model. Uniqueness, boundedness, and positiveness of the proposed stochastic model are investigated in a biologically feasible region. In terms of the stochastic basic reproduction number Rs0 of the stochastic model, extinction and persistence of the COVID-19 disease are derived. Our theoretical findings are supported by some numerical simulations. The sensitivity of the model with respect to the parameters involved in the system is studied to investigate the most sensitive parameter towards the highest number of infected individuals. We confirm the stability analysis by showing the elasticity of Rs 0 with respect to the variation of each parameter. We present real data of a case study with the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom. We compare our numerical results with the real data. © 2023 L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved.

What is hidden in the luggage? First assessments of illegal seashells gathering in Sardinia (Italy)

Natural souvenirs collection has been identified as a driving force in biodiversity and habitat degradation of tropical marine ecosystems. This work considers this phenomenon in the Mediterranean region taking Sardinia (Italy), one of the most renowned tourism destinations, as a case study. The biological material seized at Cagliari-Elmas Airport (years 2019–2020: 138 kg) was analyzed: 199 taxa were identified, gastropods (112 species, 7866 pieces) and bivalves (63 species, 34,218 pieces) resulted the most represented classes. Twenty-two protected species were found in the tourists' luggage including Patella ferruginea and Pinna nobilis, the invertebrates most threatened with extinction in the Mediterranean Sea. This study demonstrates that the illegal collection of natural mementos is common in Sardinia, thus its relevance is not limited to tropical regions. Regulation, enforcement and compliance shortcomings emerged, highlighting the importance of strengthening stakeholders' collaboration for a deeper insight on this phenomenon and implementing effective conservation strategies.

Bivalves from the Changhsingian (upper Permian) Bellerophon Formation of the Dolomites (Italy): ancestors of Lower Triassic post-extinction benthic communities

Diverse shallow marine fossil assemblages from the Changhsingian Bellerophon Formation (Dolomites) record late Palaeozoic marine life immediately before the end-Permian mass extinction. We classified c. 6500 bivalves from western Dolomites localities, identifying 26 species including one new family (Ladinomyidae), three new genera (Ladinomya, Lovaralucina, Gardenapecten) and 10 new species: Acharax frenademezi, Bakevellia (Bakevellia) preromangica, Edmondia hautmanni, Etheripecten stuflesseri, Ladinomya fosteri, Lovaralucina covidi, Palaeolima badiotica, Promytilus merlai, Tambanella? stetteneckensis and Volsellina carinata. The occurrence of three Eumorphotis species with different stratigraphic distributions, leads us to propose an upper Permian ‘Lower Eumorphotis Zone', divided into E. praecurrens, E. striatocostata and E. lorigae subzones, and distinct from the existing Lower Triassic Eumorphotis Zone (here renamed ‘Upper Eumorphotis Zone'). Palaeoecological analysis produced six biofacies and four ecofacies, based on richness, dominance and ecological lifestyle. The bivalves inhabited lagoonal to nearshore environments affected by stressed conditions: high temperatures, high salinity, shallow water depths, low oxygen and high terrigenous input. The upper Bellerophon Fm is characterized by increasingly fully marine conditions, although eurytopic taxa still suggest stressed conditions. Bivalve richness of the upper Permian Bellerophon and Lower Triassic Werfen formations was compared to estimate the genus-level extinction rate. The disappearance of almost half (47%) of Bellerophon Fm genera is remarkably low compared with other, coeval bivalve faunas. Pre-extinction bivalve faunas were dominated by stress-adapted taxa (Unionites, Eumorphotis, Bakevellia, Towapteria) able to thrive in extreme environmental conditions, survive the end-Permian mass extinction, and become the dominant biotic component of Lower Triassic benthic communities globally. © 2023 The Authors. Papers in Palaeontology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Palaeontological Association.

Local perception of the current state and threat factors of a critically endangered species, Celtis toka (Forssk.) Hepper & JRI Wood, in Burkina Faso: implications for species conservation

Celtis toka, the only species of the genus Celtis (family Cannabaceae) encountered in the flora of Burkina Faso, is critically endangered in the country. To engage the public for the future conservation and domestication of the species, knowledge of the factors threatening Celtis toka survival is necessary. Thus, the study objective was to identify the perceptions of local people concerning the current state and conservation strategies of Celtis toka in Burkina Faso. To investigate potential solutions to the threats posed to Celtis toka, we randomly surveyed 405 consenting participants using a selected semi-structured interview. Moreover, field observations were performed to assess the threat drivers cited by local people of the Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian climatic zones. Descriptive analyses (relative frequency and fidelity level) and generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to highlight the impact of sociodemographic factors and climate zones on the current state, threat drivers, and potential solutions. The chi-square test was used to assess whether to plant C. toka. GLM analyses revealed that local knowledge about the current state, threat factors and potential solution to the threat as related to natural stand varied significantly according to ethnolinguistic group (P < 0.000), sex (P = 0.01) and age (P = 0.01). Rural people had varying perceptions of the current state of C. toka. Sixty-eight percent reported a decrease in population, ten percent reported scarcity, and five percent reported extinction. The views of local people were that the factors affecting C. toka were pruning (25%), climate change (14%), deforestation (10%), ageing (10%), debarking (9%), and agriculture (7%). Potential solutions included planting (45%), conservation of C. toka and its habitat (27%), sustainable use of Celtis toka (14%), promotion of education and awareness about Celtis toka (10%) and tree/crop association (5%). The study concluded that the ethnobotanical knowledge of Celtis toka may play an important role in its conservation and domestication in Burkina Faso. Furthermore, its incorporation into reforestation and restoration programs is critical to species survival.

The Labor Regime of People Dedicated to Artistic Activities and Technical and Auxiliary Activities for Their Development Special Reference to Royal Decree-Law 5/2022, of March 22

the special employment relationship of artists has recently been modified through the entry into force of Royal Decree-Law 5/2022, of March 22, in order to adapt to Royal Decree-Law 32/2021, of December 28, and therefore, to the new social and labor realities. Therefore, the objective of these lines is to contribute to the knowledge of the labor regime of artists, analyzing the regulatory situation prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the regulatory evolution from March 2020 to the present. All this with the purpose of knowing and reflecting on the current regulatory situation of this sector.

Perceptive movement of susceptible individuals with memory.

The perception of susceptible individuals naturally lowers the transmission probability of an infectious disease but has been often ignored. In this paper, we formulate and analyze a diffusive SIS epidemic model with memory-based perceptive movement, where the perceptive movement describes a strategy for susceptible individuals to escape from infections. We prove the global existence and boundedness of a classical solution in an n-dimensional bounded smooth domain. We show the threshold-type dynamics in terms of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]: when [Formula: see text], the unique disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; when [Formula: see text], there is a unique constant endemic equilibrium, and the model is uniformly persistent. Numerical analysis exhibits that when [Formula: see text], solutions converge to the endemic equilibrium for slow memory-based movement and they converge to a stable periodic solution when memory-based movement is fast. Our results imply that the memory-based movement cannot determine the extinction or persistence of infectious disease, but it can change the persistence manner.

Analysis of Compounding and Broadband Extinction Properties of Novel Bioaerosols

Artificially prepared microbial spores have excellent electromagnetic attenuation properties due to their special composition and structure. At present, studies on the optical properties of microbial spores have mainly focused on those with a single band or a single germplasm, which has limitations and cannot reveal the optical properties comprehensively. In this paper, 3 kinds of laboratory-prepared microbial spores were selected for compounding, and the spectral reflectivities of single-germplasm biospores and compound biospores were measured in the wavebands of 0.25–2.4 and 3–15 μm. The complex refractive indices (CRIs) were calculated in combination with the Kramers–Kronig (K-K) algorithm. Relying on the smoke box broadband test system, the transmittance of single-germplasm bioaerosols and compound bioaerosols from the ultraviolet (UV) band to the far-infrared (FIR) band was measured, and the mass extinction coefficients were calculated. The results indicate that the trend of the complex refractive indices of the compound spores is consistent with that of the single-germplasm spores with a larger particle size. For the single-germplasm bioaerosols, the lowest transmittance values were 2.21, 5.70 and 6.27% in the visible (VIS), near-infrared (NIR) and middle-infrared (FIR) bands, and the mass extinction coefficients reached 1.15, 0.87 and 0.84 m2/g, respectively. When AO and BB spores were compounded at 4:1, the extinction performance of the bioaerosols somewhat improved in all wavebands. These results can help to comprehensively analyze the optical properties of bioaerosols and provide ideas for the development of new extinction materials.

COVID-19 as a Framing Device for Environmental Protest: The ECOSYSTEM HEALTH Metaphor

This paper focuses on the ECOSYSTEM HEALTH metaphor which has long prevailed in environmental communication. Following the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a contrastive view on the use of the ECOSYSTEM HEALTH metaphor in environmental discourse: we distinguish the metaphorical expressions used before the pandemic from the ones used during the pandemic. This distinction is aimed at identifying the new arguments promoted by COVID-19 metaphors. The publications released by the international environmental organization Extinction Rebellion are of particular interest. Through a detailed analysis of texts published between January and July 2020, we show that the impact of COVID-19 has modified our understanding of the ECOSYSTEM HEALTH metaphor. While environmentalists used to depict the environment as a SICK BODY prior the pandemic, the occurrences discussed below demonstrate that COVID-19 metaphors highlight the human characteristics associated with the source domain HEALTH.

Dynamics and application of a generalized SIQR epidemic model with vaccination and treatment

In this paper, we propose and investigate the SIQR epidemic model with a generalized incidence rate function, a general treatment function and vaccination term. We firstly consider the existence and uniqueness of the global nonnegative solution to the deterministic model. Further, we show the locally asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model, and obtain the basic reproduction number R0. Then we study the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution to the stochastic model with any positive initial value. Meanwhile, we obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease in the stochastic epidemic model, and find that the large noise can make the disease die out exponentially. Finally, we make an empirical analysis by the COVID-19 data of Russia and Serbia. By the performance comparison of different models, it shows that the model with vaccination and treatment we proposed is better for the real situation, which is also verified by different estimation methods. Especially, that shows the recovery rate of the infected increases by 0.042 and the death rate of the recovered is 1.525 times that of normal human in Russia. Through statistical analysis, the short-term trend of epidemic transmission is predicted: under the condition of unchanged prevention and control policies, it may reach a stable endemic equilibrium state in Russia and the epidemic will eventually extinct in Serbia. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures: A case study of the outbreak in Urumqi, China in August 2022.

In this paper, a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures is proposed. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is obtained. Secondly, threshold criteria for the stochastic extinction and persistence in the mean with probability one are established. Moreover, a sufficient condition for the existence of unique ergodic stationary distribution for any positive solution is also established. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out in combination with real COVID-19 data from Urumqi, China and the theoretical results are verified.

International Listening Posts global report summary: the world at the dawn of 2022 … let's wake up

In this third year of the global Covid-19 pandemic, we are in touch with the tragedy of life, our fear of extinction, and the anxieties associated with the regression of human civilisation. Fatigue and exhaustion, coupled with existential burnout and profound sadness is apparent in all thirteen global reports. Covid has interrupted our sense of personal continuity and omnipotence, confronting us with our vulnerabilities and exigencies, fuelled by our failed economic, political, and social models. The weakening of shared values, fragmentation of relations, increasing aggression, and social chaos augment divisions and splitting. As we connect with inequality and privilege, some experience guilt and discomfort. Many are awakening to the interconnectedness of all things, and our individual and collective responsibilities. We need credible and reliable leadership to rebuild trust, and responsible, functioning political authorities and institutions to help foster belonging, protection, and agency. We are struggling to think enough, care enough, and act enough. "Let's wake up” to the available resources within us and externally, rediscovering positive energies and the courage to live with contradictions, engaging our "inoculated selves against seeing injustices” and acting responsibly towards our common home and the common good. Will we succeed? © 2022,Organisational and Social Dynamics.All Rights Reserved.

Young people and post-pandemic futures: scenario planning as a radical politics of hope

Purpose: In this paper we report on the outcomes of a scenario planning project in Melbourne's (Australia) inner northern suburbs, which was undertaken in the context of an extended lockdown during Melbourne's second wave of COVID-19 infections. In this project, the researchers sought to identify the ways in which young people and youth service providers understood the challenges that the pandemic was creating for young people and the provision of youth services, and through the 5 years up to 2025. Design/methodology/approach: The project was shaped by a scenario planning methodology that produced three research informed scenarios of possible futures for young people in Melbourne's inner north in 2025. The project conducted a series of structured video interviews with young people, and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders that asked participants to reflect on the context of the pandemic, and what the future might hold in relation to young people's pathways and health and well-being, and the futures of their communities and the planet. Findings: The scenario planning methodology revealed many concerns, uncertainties and anxieties that were shared, but which also varied between young people and stakeholders – both about the immediacy of the pandemic, and its aftermaths and intersection with future crises. Originality/value: The scenario planning approach offers sociologies of education and youth a means to do the future-oriented, "hopeful” work that multiple crises for young people demand. Scenario planning is an "affirmative” exercise in hope by which sociologies can "stay with the trouble” that we find ourselves in, and that the pandemic has amplified. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.

The house of man: Sheltering in the Anthropocene

When the pandemic struck, many countries went into lockdown mode;India did so for 21 days starting on March 24, 2020. In addition to the people who were already in quarantine, the experience during the lockdown has impacted our "normal" experience of home as people have been asked to stay at home. In the Anthropocene, the geological epoch where humans are acting as a planetary force, the questions of "home" and "ownership" have come under intense scrutiny because various species are losing their natural habitats and face extinction. This chapter proposes to investigate the elementality of home that marks the pandemic and the Anthropocene. To locate this threshold, we follow the conceptual motif of sanctuary and shelter to illuminate the structure of home during the pandemic. The chapter discusses the various inflections of home in the pandemic and its construction as a scientifically validated shelter from the virus. It focuses on the figure of the migrant and how the rootlessness of the migrant can be understood in the face of Gaia, our planet as a sanctuary in the Anthropocene. To discuss on futures that are lost, the chapter reflects on images of home-as-sanctuary relative to the pandemic and the Anthropocene. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Interspecies cosmopolitanism: Non-human power and the grounds of world order in the Anthropocene

Cosmopolitanism claims to be the most just and inclusive of mainstream approaches to the ethics and practice of world order, given its commitment to human interconnection, peace, equality, diversity, and rights, and its concern with the many globalised pathologies that entrench injustice and vulnerability across borders. Yet it has largely remained oblivious to the agency, power, and value of non-human life on a turbulent and active Earth. Without rejecting its commitments to justice for human beings, the article challenges its humanism as both morally and politically inadequate to the situation of the Anthropocene, exemplified by the simultaneous crises of climate change, mass extinction, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In answer, the article develops new grounds and principles for an interspecies cosmopolitanism, exploring how we can reimagine its ontological foundations by creating new grounding images of subjectivity, existential unity, institutional organisation, and ordering purpose. These, in turn, can support political and institutional projects to secure the rights of ecosystems and people to flourish and persist through an increasingly chaotic epoch of human dominance and multispecies vulnerability across the Anthropocene Earth.

Movement pedagogies in pandemic times: Extinction Rebellion Netherlands and (un)learning from the margins

This article is based on activist research conducted alongside Extinction Rebellion Netherlands. By taking a pedagogical approach to social movements, it posits that Extinction Rebellion Netherlands is simultaneously bound up in the reproduction of and resistance to dominant ways of knowing and being. It discusses how ‘pedagogies of urgency' reproduce the learning of hegemonic forms of life associated with modernity/coloniality. Treating the movement's margins as a privileged space of epistemological possibility, it examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted who is ‘heard, seen and rendered knowing' [Motta & Esteves. (2014). Reinventing emancipation in the 21st century: The pedagogical practices of social movements. Interface, 6(1), 1–24, p. 5)]. This has facilitated the unlearning of pedagogies of urgency, and the learning of new relationships, subjectivities and knowledges that centre justice, prefiguration, and building relations across difference. Nevertheless, the pandemic also underscores some of the impossibilities for learning and dialogue inherent in the exclusions and violence at the heart of modern/colonial power relations.

Koala conservation in South East Queensland: A grey literature review analysis

This grey literature review documents koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) conservation initiatives applied across 12 local government areas in South East Queensland, Australia. To overcome threats to koalas' survival, the grey literature indicates that local governments in this region focus on wildlife management solutions, wildlife signage, habitat restoration projects and koala awareness campaigns. Despite these measures, land clearing of koala habitat to cater for urban population growth combined with recent bushfires and floods have contributed to the decline of koalas in this region. Recommendations to enhance progress include greater usage of the grey literature in peer review work and further application of social marketing to encourage residents to uptake behaviors that can mitigate threats to koalas, including slowing down when driving in koala zones, participating in citizen science, and leashing dogs when walking in native bush areas. The need for collaborative efforts aimed at conserving the koala from potential extinction is indicated. This paper provides an approach that can be applied to track progress on coordinated efforts to conserve koalas.

Stochastic analysis of a COVID-19 model with effects of vaccination and different transition rates: Real data approach.

This paper presents a stochastic model for COVID-19 that takes into account factors such as incubation times, vaccine effectiveness, and quarantine periods in the spread of the virus in symptomatically contagious populations. The paper outlines the conditions necessary for the existence and uniqueness of a global solution for the stochastic model. Additionally, the paper employs nonlinear analysis to demonstrate some results on the ergodic aspect of the stochastic model. The model is also simulated and compared to deterministic dynamics. To validate and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed system, the paper compares the results of the infected class with actual cases from Iraq, Bangladesh, and Croatia. Furthermore, the paper visualizes the impact of vaccination rates and transition rates on the dynamics of infected people in the infected class.

Controlling epidemic extinction using early warning signals.

As the recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown us, there is a critical need to develop new approaches to monitoring the outbreak and spread of infectious disease. Improvements in monitoring will enable a timely implementation of control measures, including vaccine and quarantine, to stem the spread of disease. One such approach involves the use of early warning signals to detect when critical transitions are about to occur. Although the early detection of a stochastic transition is difficult to predict using the generic indicators of early warning signals theory, the changes detected by the indicators do tell us that some type of transition is taking place. This observation will serve as the foundation of the method described in the article. We consider a susceptible-infectious-susceptible epidemic model with reproduction number R 0 > 1 so that the deterministic endemic equilibrium is stable. Stochastically, realizations will fluctuate around this equilibrium for a very long time until, as a rare event, the noise will induce a transition from the endemic state to the extinct state. In this article, we describe how metric-based indicators from early warning signals theory can be used to monitor the state of the system. By measuring the autocorrelation, return rate, skewness, and variance of the time series, it is possible to determine when the system is in a weakened state. By applying a control that emulates vaccine/quarantine when the system is in this weakened state, we can cause the disease to go extinct earlier than it otherwise would without control. We also demonstrate that applying a control at the wrong time (when the system is in a non-weakened, highly resilient state) can lead to a longer extinction time than if no control had been applied. This feature underlines the importance of determining the system's state of resilience before attempting to affect its behavior through control measures.

Global asymptotic stability, extinction and ergodic stationary distribution in a stochastic model for dual variants of SARS-CoV-2

Several mathematical models have been developed to investigate the dynamics SARS-CoV-2 and its different variants. Most of the multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 models do not capture an important and more realistic feature of such models known as randomness. As the dynamical behavior of most epidemics, especially SARS-CoV-2, is unarguably influenced by several random factors, it is appropriate to consider a stochastic vaccination co-infection model for two strains of SARS-CoV-2. In this work, a new stochastic model for two variants of SARS-CoV-2 is presented. The conditions of existence and the uniqueness of a unique global solution of the stochastic model are derived. Constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, the conditions for the stochastic system to fluctuate around endemic equilibrium of the deterministic system are derived. Stationary distribution and ergodicity for the new co-infection model are also studied. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate theoretical results. It is observed that when the white noise intensities are larger than certain thresholds and the associated stochastic reproduction numbers are less than unity, both strains die out and go into extinction with unit probability. More-over, it is observed that, for weak white noise intensities, the solution of the stochastic system fluctuates around the endemic equilibrium (EE) of the deterministic model. Frequency distributions are also studied to show random fluctuations due to stochastic white noise intensities. The results presented herein also reveal the impact of vaccination in reducing the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants within a given population. © 2022 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS)